Saudi Arabia is likely to become even more critical to the world's oil needs in the coming decades and its reserves may be big enough to meet global demands for the next century, says UPI, quoting a US think tank.

"Saudi Arabia is a key petroleum exporter and central to a steadily more interdependent global economy ... This situation will not change in the foreseeable future," says a new report from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies here.

The strategic implications to be drawn from the report appear clear - the continued safety and stability of Saudi Arabia will remain a priority goal for major industrial nations dependent upon continued supplies of high-grade, easily-accessible petroleum for decades to come.

"Most estimates indicate that Saudi Arabia holds roughly one-quarter of the world's proven oil reserves, with a nominal figure of 261.90 billion barrels," the report says.

According to the Energy Information Agency (EIA) of the US department of energy, the desert kingdom "may contain up to 1 trillion barrels of ultimately recoverable oil," says the report titled "Global Energy Demand and Capacity Building in Saudi Arabia's Petroleum Sector" by analysts Anthony H. Cordesman, Nawaf Obaid and Khalid al-Rodhan.

It further notes: "Saudi sources have recently gone much higher. On Dec. 27, 2004, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi stated that the country's proven reserves can go up to 461 billion barrels in the next few years."

The report, however, cautions that this is not a guaranteed development.

"There are no certainties here or (in) any other major aspect of current estimate(s) of Saudi capacity and world demand," it says. It notes the arguments of maverick oil analyst Matthew Simmons that the Saudi Aramco Corp. may have drastically overestimated the kingdom's reserves.

Nevertheless, it leaves almost no doubt Saudi Arabia will remain the world's largest and - given peace and stability - most cost-effective supplier of high grade petroleum for decades to come and that global dependence on it is likely to increase rather decrease over the next generation at least.

The report concludes Saudi Arabia retains the production capacity, technological resources and the will to remain the world's crucial "swing" producer of oil, the nation with sufficient surplus capacity to meet unexpected spikes in international demand and to be able to most influence global oil prices by restricting or expanding its production.

"The EIA estimates that these high oil reserves, and low incremental production costs will ensure that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf region will dominate increase in oil production through at least 2015," it states.